COVID-19 BACK to NORMAL

Back to Work Graph Explanation

  1. Black curve forecast death rate based on  Italian data. Worst Case Scenario

  2.  Blue curve forecast death rate based on US data Symmetric curve. Best Case Scenario 

  3. Red curve from IMHE model May 1. Actual deaths/day to May 3. Forcast after May 3

  4. Teal upper bar indicates

    • May 2 : Under 60 healthy people can go back to work in Low Density Populations

    • May 17 : Over 60 no pre-existing conditions can go back to work in Low Density Populations

  5. Teal lower bar indicates set at 10% of maximum deaths/day. Which would be 244 deaths/day.

    • May 16 : Under 60 healthy people can go back to work in High Density Populations

    • June 1 : Over 60 no pre-existing conditions can go back to work in High Density Populations

    • August 3 : All others can go back to work in High Density Populations

 

Analysis

The area to the right of the worst case curve and below the 50% mark is an overly cautious position. The area to the left of the symmetric curve would be overly optimistic. Any path through the area bounded by the worst and best case curves would be a way to get back to normal.

Expected total deaths for the worst case scenario is 150,000. The IHME model total deaths is projected to be 134,475.

The Story Behind the "Back to Work" Slide

The deaths/day (death rate) from Italy and Spain were used to fit a Pearson IV function. These two countries have nearly identical death rate curves and are about 20 days ahead of the US COVID curve as defined by the maximum in the death rate.  Assuming that the deaths/day follow the same trajectory as the Spanish and Italian data, the US data was fit with the same Pearson IV function. The US data was used to determine the peak maximum, maximum date and a peak top width parameter The other two parameters for the Pearson IV function one width parameter and one skew parameter were obtained from the Italian curve in order to forecast the worst case curve.

The best case curve was determined by fitting the US data with a symmetric curve.

The best and worst case forecasts are based on curve fitting the death/day data not modeling, IHME, forecasts.

 

References

The death data from COVID-19 was obtained from:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Click on the country for details.

The middle curve comes from the U. of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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